I live on the opposite side of the country so hard to say just how bad the honking and disruption was, but for me the convoy was a revelation. One leader listened and brought them coffee and the other one( can’t bring myself call him a leader) called in the guns and ordered them gone. That’s when I knew which one was real and which one was pretend. The listener had my vote then and has my vote today. Go Poilievre!
I agree, Susan. Watching Canadians gather to greet, cheer on, provide encouragement and sustenance to the convoy participants as they crossed the country was the greatest show of organic patriotism I have ever seen. So much more sincere and authentic than the “elbows up” stuff organized by the Liberals trying to make Carney appear strong. The annoying horn-honking turned out to be easily solved and ended by a simple city bylaw once a citizen decided to deal with it as opposed to the “others” (politicians, police, bylaw officers, etc.) who wanted to create, not solve, a problem. In my opinion, the movement and message was hijacked but it was initially quite analogous to those “riding the rails” to Ottawa in times past. And, the invoking of the Emergencies Act was a complete over reaction by a little Napoleonic poseur who wanted to have his own “daddy moment”. I have nothing but contempt for the Trudeau, and now Carney sneak of weasels Liberals.
I think you meant "organic patriotism", not nationalism.
"Elbows up" does seem like instant oatmeal patriotism, particularly because it's beneficiaries are those who are so often eager to denigrate the flaws of our country's culture and history (real or imagined) for their own political benefit (while enriching their friends and supporting their own investments).
You are correct on all counts. I was reluctant to use the word “patriotism” as it sounds more American than Canadian, so opted for “nationalism.” I have now edited to "patriotism".
I agree; by my estimation this race is way closer than it appears. The logic I'm operating under is based on both the underrepresentation of the young vote, and what I also assume is most likely a skewed sampling of predominantly the university-educated young vote.
I'm curious to know, quite frankly, how pollsters are connecting to the young...when generally-speaking nobody under the age of 40 answers their phones for any reason. This leads me to believe that their polling of the young consists of mainly those who've signed up to be polled...which would skew their data towards predominantly affluent university students and recent grads - who tend to lean left. When even that data shows majority Conservative support (which it does), to me I'm calculating a shadow Conservative support that could be as high as 60%. It wouldn't surprise me one bit.
On an anecdotal level, as a middle-aged adult who interacts with a lot of young adults. I don't know a single one that isn't Conservative...and these aren't rich kids...these are at-risk, on the edge of homelessness youths. They don't fear Trump ... he doesn't factor into the equation at all. They are desperate, feel they have no future ... and are sick and tired of seeing their friends die of fentanyl overdoses! While the Boomers have gotten rich ... their grandchildren are living through what can only be described as a genocide. Imagine being 20, and having lost at least a dozen friends to fentanyl overdoses.
In Victoria, where is live, I'm a member of a private Facebook page, whose only purpose is to document the passing of those on the streets. Every week, someone I know dies! The page is private to keep the callous insults of the wealthy out, so we can mourn the deaths of our friends.
I agree with Trish Wood that they're over sampling inebriated boomer wine moms watching endless episodes of The View and nervously speed googling their estimated home equity values.
I was at the Windsor Rally, and people had been lined up since 4PM. I arrived at 4:30 and watched as the crowd grew larger and larger. Talk amongst the crowd focused mainly on Poilievre bringing hope to the country and the outright loathing of the liberals. Pleb was there recording this huge crowd of supporters. People supporting Poilievre are disappointed in the polls, but as many said that night, it motivates them to get out and vote. You don't stand for over 4 hours at a rally and then sit on your couch come election time.
My uneducated guess is that pollsters are not reaching a segment of the voter pool who are committed Conservative voters. That’s not to say that a serious ambush to the national polling industry is about to occur, but the share of the vote could be close and that still favours the Liberal dominance in Ontario and Quebec.
IF the Carney Liberals win, I think there will be some significant voter remorse (like the surprise Wynne victory) where voters wonder how they got so badly duped. The Conservative coalition needs to play a long game, and wait.
"It would be easy for Poilievre and his supporters to become deflated and alienated by endless polling showing the NDP and Bloc vote evaporating toward the Liberals. "
Yesterday i listened to a pollster on QR77 tell us how important polling is, how people and groups need it to shape their intentions.
Which is awful.
I have been suggesting for years, in my position as nobody, that we should completely ban all political polling from the moment the election is called.
Imagine an election where parties have to have "conventions" and there decide based on their "principles" as to what their platform will be in the next election.
Then in the election go out and sell it with no feedback allowed until the actual election vote.
Imagine, no strategic voting because you have no real idea how the parties are doing.
No targeting of specific ridings with micro policies based on polling data.
Imagine an election in a democracy where parties and leaders have to come up with a program based on their principles and then go sell it?
Its time.
And no i don;t care how many pollsters go out of employment, they are like tax lawyers who eat because other lawyers make the tax code so complex.
This reminds me a lot of what we saw with Trump in 2016. The crowds weren’t just big,they were emotional, committed, and loud. Same here. It’s not just about numbers, it’s about how people show up. Homemade signs, families driving hours, standing in the cold just to be in the room. That kind of energy doesn’t show up in polling until it suddenly does.
One thing I’d add is that people underestimate how much this kind of political momentum is also social. You don’t just attend a rally, you post about it, you share videos, you feel part of something. That creates feedback loops, and eventually it shifts voter behavior,especially in places where people haven’t felt politically seen in a long time.
So yeah, this isn’t just optics. It’s infrastructure.
Carney and others are going to have to recognize that for all the ugliness and lies that come out of Poilievre he has unquestionable tapped into a real sentiment that exists in real Canadians.
The challenge will be to figure out what it really means - beyond the noise. After you strip away the character assassination, the hyperbole, and the misinformation, the conspiracy theories and the extreme right - there is likely still something very significant remaining. This many people cannot buy into the BS. They're looking past it. They're there despite it.
So, it may not be easy to find the signal through that noise but it is important and must be done.
Another story to follow is about the lawn signs: in the very small sample of the area where I live, Conservative lawn signs have been popping up all over the place since the campaign began, but they are systematically "removed" overnight, something I have never seen before. Meanwhile, I can count with one hand the liberal (incumbent) candidate signs.
I live on the opposite side of the country so hard to say just how bad the honking and disruption was, but for me the convoy was a revelation. One leader listened and brought them coffee and the other one( can’t bring myself call him a leader) called in the guns and ordered them gone. That’s when I knew which one was real and which one was pretend. The listener had my vote then and has my vote today. Go Poilievre!
I agree, Susan. Watching Canadians gather to greet, cheer on, provide encouragement and sustenance to the convoy participants as they crossed the country was the greatest show of organic patriotism I have ever seen. So much more sincere and authentic than the “elbows up” stuff organized by the Liberals trying to make Carney appear strong. The annoying horn-honking turned out to be easily solved and ended by a simple city bylaw once a citizen decided to deal with it as opposed to the “others” (politicians, police, bylaw officers, etc.) who wanted to create, not solve, a problem. In my opinion, the movement and message was hijacked but it was initially quite analogous to those “riding the rails” to Ottawa in times past. And, the invoking of the Emergencies Act was a complete over reaction by a little Napoleonic poseur who wanted to have his own “daddy moment”. I have nothing but contempt for the Trudeau, and now Carney sneak of weasels Liberals.
I think you meant "organic patriotism", not nationalism.
"Elbows up" does seem like instant oatmeal patriotism, particularly because it's beneficiaries are those who are so often eager to denigrate the flaws of our country's culture and history (real or imagined) for their own political benefit (while enriching their friends and supporting their own investments).
You are correct on all counts. I was reluctant to use the word “patriotism” as it sounds more American than Canadian, so opted for “nationalism.” I have now edited to "patriotism".
I agree; by my estimation this race is way closer than it appears. The logic I'm operating under is based on both the underrepresentation of the young vote, and what I also assume is most likely a skewed sampling of predominantly the university-educated young vote.
I'm curious to know, quite frankly, how pollsters are connecting to the young...when generally-speaking nobody under the age of 40 answers their phones for any reason. This leads me to believe that their polling of the young consists of mainly those who've signed up to be polled...which would skew their data towards predominantly affluent university students and recent grads - who tend to lean left. When even that data shows majority Conservative support (which it does), to me I'm calculating a shadow Conservative support that could be as high as 60%. It wouldn't surprise me one bit.
On an anecdotal level, as a middle-aged adult who interacts with a lot of young adults. I don't know a single one that isn't Conservative...and these aren't rich kids...these are at-risk, on the edge of homelessness youths. They don't fear Trump ... he doesn't factor into the equation at all. They are desperate, feel they have no future ... and are sick and tired of seeing their friends die of fentanyl overdoses! While the Boomers have gotten rich ... their grandchildren are living through what can only be described as a genocide. Imagine being 20, and having lost at least a dozen friends to fentanyl overdoses.
In Victoria, where is live, I'm a member of a private Facebook page, whose only purpose is to document the passing of those on the streets. Every week, someone I know dies! The page is private to keep the callous insults of the wealthy out, so we can mourn the deaths of our friends.
I agree with Trish Wood that they're over sampling inebriated boomer wine moms watching endless episodes of The View and nervously speed googling their estimated home equity values.
https://open.substack.com/pub/lawyerlisa/p/breaking-rcmp-officer-releases-public
Please review this public rcmp letter implicating 9 members of Carney's Cabinet
"You asked for a miracle. I give you the R.C.M.P."
I was at the Windsor Rally, and people had been lined up since 4PM. I arrived at 4:30 and watched as the crowd grew larger and larger. Talk amongst the crowd focused mainly on Poilievre bringing hope to the country and the outright loathing of the liberals. Pleb was there recording this huge crowd of supporters. People supporting Poilievre are disappointed in the polls, but as many said that night, it motivates them to get out and vote. You don't stand for over 4 hours at a rally and then sit on your couch come election time.
Fascinating, and rather telling re the stories in the legacy media attempting to discredit these rallies.
My uneducated guess is that pollsters are not reaching a segment of the voter pool who are committed Conservative voters. That’s not to say that a serious ambush to the national polling industry is about to occur, but the share of the vote could be close and that still favours the Liberal dominance in Ontario and Quebec.
IF the Carney Liberals win, I think there will be some significant voter remorse (like the surprise Wynne victory) where voters wonder how they got so badly duped. The Conservative coalition needs to play a long game, and wait.
Exactly.
"It would be easy for Poilievre and his supporters to become deflated and alienated by endless polling showing the NDP and Bloc vote evaporating toward the Liberals. "
Yesterday i listened to a pollster on QR77 tell us how important polling is, how people and groups need it to shape their intentions.
Which is awful.
I have been suggesting for years, in my position as nobody, that we should completely ban all political polling from the moment the election is called.
Imagine an election where parties have to have "conventions" and there decide based on their "principles" as to what their platform will be in the next election.
Then in the election go out and sell it with no feedback allowed until the actual election vote.
Imagine, no strategic voting because you have no real idea how the parties are doing.
No targeting of specific ridings with micro policies based on polling data.
Imagine an election in a democracy where parties and leaders have to come up with a program based on their principles and then go sell it?
Its time.
And no i don;t care how many pollsters go out of employment, they are like tax lawyers who eat because other lawyers make the tax code so complex.
Simplify.
Try searching on Google when the next rally is. Impossible. Results from other elections come up. Past rallies.
This reminds me a lot of what we saw with Trump in 2016. The crowds weren’t just big,they were emotional, committed, and loud. Same here. It’s not just about numbers, it’s about how people show up. Homemade signs, families driving hours, standing in the cold just to be in the room. That kind of energy doesn’t show up in polling until it suddenly does.
One thing I’d add is that people underestimate how much this kind of political momentum is also social. You don’t just attend a rally, you post about it, you share videos, you feel part of something. That creates feedback loops, and eventually it shifts voter behavior,especially in places where people haven’t felt politically seen in a long time.
So yeah, this isn’t just optics. It’s infrastructure.
Carney and others are going to have to recognize that for all the ugliness and lies that come out of Poilievre he has unquestionable tapped into a real sentiment that exists in real Canadians.
The challenge will be to figure out what it really means - beyond the noise. After you strip away the character assassination, the hyperbole, and the misinformation, the conspiracy theories and the extreme right - there is likely still something very significant remaining. This many people cannot buy into the BS. They're looking past it. They're there despite it.
So, it may not be easy to find the signal through that noise but it is important and must be done.
Any relation to Peter Menzies?
Another story to follow is about the lawn signs: in the very small sample of the area where I live, Conservative lawn signs have been popping up all over the place since the campaign began, but they are systematically "removed" overnight, something I have never seen before. Meanwhile, I can count with one hand the liberal (incumbent) candidate signs.